学术
摘 要:
对中国科学院大气物理研究所2006年的夏季（6～8月）降水预测进行检验，结果表明，110°E以东地区预报与实况大体上比较接近，重庆和四川的严重旱灾以及华南的严重洪涝灾害均未预报出来。另外分析了2006年夏季中国异常气候的特点。夏季风的季节内变化对夏季降水异常具有重要影响，而短期气候预测对夏季风季节内变化的预测还是一个难点。[著者文摘]
文章出处:
《气候与环境研究》-2007年12卷1期 -1-7页
分 类 号:
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1006-9585（2007）01-0001-07
The Analysis of Anomalous Climate in Eastern China in Summer 2006——Verification of Seasonal Climate Predictions of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WEI Jie, CHEN Hong, SUN Jian-Hua, TAO Shi-Yan, ZHANG Qing-Yun, ZHAO Si-Xiong （Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029）
Abstract:
The prediction of summer rainfall by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences is tested. The rainfall of the prediction in Eastern China is close to the observation. The severe drought of Chongqing and Sichuan was not forecasted, nor was the heavy flood in southern China. The feature of the abnormal climate in the summer of 2006 is analyzed. The intraseasonal change of summer monsoon played an important role in the climatic anomaly of the rainfall in China. It is still very difficult to predict the anomalous rainfall due to intraseasonal change of the summer monsoon.[著者文摘]
Key words:
climatic feature, atmospheric circulation, seasonal climate prediction
基金资助:
收到修定稿国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2004CIM18301和中国科学院奥运科技项目KACX1-02
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