学术
摘 要:
针对传统的人口增长预测模型不能理想地捕获我国人口增长率数据的非线性性特征,本文基于局部线性非参数估计理论,对我国建国以来的年人口增长率建立了非参数自回归NAR（1）模型,并对2000-2003年的年人口增长率进行了预测,计算结果表明,相对于参数自回归模型而言,非参数自回归模型能够很好地解决人口增长预测这一非线性问题,预测精度较高。[著者文摘]
文章出处:
《数理统计与管理》-2007年26卷5期 -759-764页
栏目信息:
分 类 号:
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1002-1566（2007）05-0759-06
Nonparametric Autoregression Prediction Model on Population Growth Rate
GONG Yong-li, ZHANG De-sheng, WU Xin-qian （ 1. School of Science, Xi＇ an University of Tec hnology, Xi＇ an 710054 China; 2. School of Science, Northwestem Polytechnial University, Xi＇ an 710072, China）
Abstract:
The traditional population growth forecast model cannot ideally catch the nonlineal characteristic of our country＇ s population growth rate, so this text establishes the nonparametric autoregression 1 - D forecast model on our country＇ s population growth rate based on the local linear estimation theory, and apply this model to predict the observations 2000 - 2003. The computed results show that the nonparametric autoregression model can give better results than the parametric autoregression model for forecasting population growth rate.[著者文摘]
Key words:
nonparametric estimation; nonparametric autoregression model; prediction
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