学术
21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展
胡宜昌[1,3] 董文杰[1,2] 何勇[2]
[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039
摘 要:
由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响,越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究,几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化,而且在全球变暖的大背景下,未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然,研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性,从模式模拟来看,目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性,不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异;而从观测分析来看,研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶,如果对更长时间作分析,结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发,结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展,最后简单地总结了这些进展,并提出了进一步研究的思路。[著者文摘]
文章出处:
《地球科学进展》-2007年22卷10期 -1066-1075页
栏目信息:
分 类 号:
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1001-8166（2007）10-1066-10
Progress of the Study of Extreme Weather and Climate Events at the Beginning of the Twenty First Century
HU Yi-chang;DONG Wen-jie;HE Yong（1.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia;Institute of AtmosphericPhysics;Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100029;China;2.National Climate Center;Beijing100081;China;3.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100039;China）
Abstract:
More and more researches pay attention to extreme events because of their destructive impacts.Both observing and modeling studies found that extreme temperature and precipitation had significant changes.Further more,there may be more severe extreme events in the future with global warming.Of course,there are still many uncertainties contained in these results.Two main factors contribute to these uncertaintiesne.One is associated with models.There are usually great difference of outputs between different models;the other is the possible difference resulted from the period of different length analyzed.From the definition of extreme events,progresses about the study of extreme events in the last few years are described in detail first for both observing and modeling studies.Then the main progresses are listed,and some problems hanging in doubt are summarized.[著者文摘]
Key words:
Extreme events;Temperature;Precipitation.
基金资助:
中国气象局气候变化专项项目“未来30年气候变化对我国北方农牧交错带生态系统的影响及其对策研究”（编号：CCSF2007-8）;国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“北方干旱化与人类适应”（编号：2006CB400503）资助.
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