学术
底拖网调查数据的Delta-模型分析及其在黄海小黄鱼和银鲳资源评估中的应用
李凡[1,2] 李显森[1] 赵宪勇[1]
[1]中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所农业部海洋渔业资源可持续利用重点开放实验室,山东青岛266071 [2]上海水产大学海洋学院,上海200090
摘 要:
底拖网调查（扫海面积法）的数据处理方法主要有两大类，即基于调查设计的方法（design-based method）和基于模型的方法（model-based method），其中基于调查设计的方法在我国的应用较为常见，而基于模型的方法则较少应用。介绍了渔业资源底拖网调查数据的△-分布模型分析方法，并采用此方法对2000年秋季黄海小黄鱼和银鲳的资源量进行了评估。结果显示，调查海区小黄鱼资源的平均分布密度为66．3kg·km^-2，95％置信区间为（23．4，109．2）kg·km^-2；总资源量均值为14626．9t，95％置信区间为（5168．4，24085．5）t。银鲳资源密度均值为19．0kg·km^-2，95％置信区间为（3．5，34．5）kg·km^-2；总资源量均值为4194．3t，95％置信区间为（773．2，7615．4）t。传统的基于调查设计的方法得到的置信区间范围则较宽，且下限出现负值。上述结果表明△-分布模型法的评估结果具有较高的精度，是一种值得推广的渔业资源底拖网调查数据分析与资源评估方法。[著者文摘]
文章出处:
《水产学报》-2008年1期 -145-151页
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1000-0615（2008）01-0145-07
Bottom trawl survey data analysis based on Delta-distribution model and its application in the estimation of small yellow croak and silver pomfret in the Yellow Sea
LI Fan,LI Xian-sen,ZHAO Xian-yong（1.Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Marine Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;2.College of Marine Science ＆ Technology, Shanghai Fisheries University, Shanghai 200090, China）
Abstract:
There are two groups of methods, namely, the design-based methods and the model-based methods that are commonly used for the analysis of bottom trawl survey data based on swept area method. While the design-based methods enjoy wide application, the model-based methods are seldom used in China. The Delta- distribution model-based method is described and then applied for the estimation of small yellow croaker and silver pomfret in the Yellow Sea based on a survey conducted in autumn, 2000. It shows that the stock density of small yellow croaker was 66.3 kg·km^-2 and its 95 % Confidence Interval （CI） was （23.4,109.2） kg·km^-2; the total biomass of small yellow croaker in the survey area was 14 626.9 t and its 95% CI was（5 168.4,24 085.5） t. Stock density of silver pomfret was 19.0 kg.km-2 and its 95% CI was（3.5,34.5） kg·km^-2, the total biomass of silver pomfret in the survey area was 4 194.3 t and its 95% CI was（773.2, 7 615.4） t. The traditional design-based method, however, resulted in much wider confidence intervals with negative low limits. The above results indicate that the Delta-distribution model-based method may provide estimates with higher precision, and deserve a much wider application in data analysis for the stock assessment using bottom trawl surveys.[著者文摘]
Key words:
bottom trawl survey; data analysis; confidence interval; design-based methods; model-based methods
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目（30490233）;国家“九七三”计划项目（2006CB400608）
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