学术
黄土高原降水对气候变暖响应的敏感性研究
王毅荣[1,2] 吕世华[3]
[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000
摘 要:
利用黄土高原地区1951—2004年实测气象资料，采用小波分析、EOF分解等方法，研究了黄土高原降水诸要素对全球变暖的响应、非降水气候要素对降水响应的敏感性问题．结果表明：秋季干旱化趋势突出，冬季降水增多，夏季高原西部湿润化、东部干旱化．各季节降水量的区域响应敏感程度和敏感区不同，敏感区从春到冬响应由东向两、由北向南移动，降水诸要素在不同时间尺度上的响应敏感性也不相同，但区域响应的年际变化基本同步，年代际变化的趋势、周期、阶段、转折等存在明显差异．大多非降水要素对降水变化响应不够敏感．[著者文摘]
文章出处:
《冰川冻土》-2008年30卷1期 -43-51页
栏目信息:
分 类 号:
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1000-0240（2008）01-0043-09
Sensitivity Analysis of the Response of Precipitation to Climate Change over China Loess Plateau
WANG Yi-rong, LU Shi-hua （1 .Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China; 2 Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China; 3 .Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China）
Abstract:
The sensitivity of the response of precipitation and other factors to global climate warming and the response of non-precipitation climatic elements to precipitation, together with other issues, are studied in this paper, based on the observed meteorological data of 54 years （1951 2004） on the China Loess Plateau and by using wavelet analysis and empirical orthogonal function etc. It is found that over the plateau the autumn climate becomes warmer and drier significantly, winter precipitation increases, and summer becomes wet in the west part and arid in the east part. The sen-sitivity and of the response of precipitation are different from season to season. From spring to winter, the sensitive areas move westwards and southwards. The response sensitivity of precipitation and some other factors are also different for different timescale. The inter-annual variation of the regional response is synchronal basically. However, the inter-decadal variation of the regional response is obviously different in changing tendency, period, phase and transition point. The non-precipitation factors are not very sensitive to the precipitation change.[著者文摘]
Key words:
China Loess Plateau; precipitation; climate change; regional response; sensitivity
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（40675066）;科技部社会公益研究专项“中国干旱气象灾害监测预警方法研究”（2004DIB5J196）资助
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